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Probabilistic Safety Analyses

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Definition: Probabilistic safety analyses (PSA) are quantitative methods for assessing the risks of technical systems on the basis of probability models. They analyse the probability of occurrence and the consequences of potential malfunctions or damage events. The aim is the systematic determination and reduction of risk levels.

Practical relevance: PSA are used in particular in nuclear facilities, the process industry, aviation and energy supply. Methods include fault tree analysis (FTA), event tree analysis (ETA) and Monte Carlo simulations. Failure probabilities, frequencies of damage scenarios and risk metrics are assessed. Regulatory requirements arise, among other things, from international safety guidelines and industry-specific regulations.

Decision-making perspectives:

  • Technical decision-makers: Identification of critical components and prioritisation of technical measures.
  • Purchasing/project management: Risk-based investment decisions and resource planning.
  • Science: Model validation, sensitivity analyses and statistical uncertainty assessment.
  • Insurance/law: Quantitative proof of systematic risk assessment and duty of care.

Typical testing or verification methods: Fault tree analysis (FTA), event tree analysis (ETA), Monte Carlo simulation, sensitivity analysis.

FAQ:

  • What is the advantage of probabilistic over deterministic analyses?
  • They take probabilities and uncertainties into account and enable a quantitative risk assessment.
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